Are Carriers Preparing for a Cautious Red Sea Return?

The global shipping industry stands at a crossroads as container lines weigh the strategic decision to resume transit through the Red Sea.

Rico Luman, Senior Sector Economist for Transport and Logistics at Think.ING, identifies this potential return "as arguably the most important development to watch for in the global shipping market next year". 

Rico suggests "it's not a matter of 'if', but 'when'. And should one big company decide it's worth the risk, others will surely follow". 

The Suez Canal processes more than 15% of global goods trade and up to twice that share of global container traffic. Yet, regional instability has forced shipping lines to reroute for nearly two years.

Rerouting through the Cape of Good Hope

Following attacks in the Red Sea, most container vessels bypassed the Suez Canal entirely, opting for the extended route around the Cape of Good Hope. This diversion elevated freight costs while unexpectedly reviving profit margins for carriers recovering from post-pandemic lows.

Rico observes: "Resuming Red Sea transit saves more than 3,000 nautical miles and roughly 10 days of sailing on the Asia–Northwest Europe route."

The shift could free up substantial fleet capacity, approximately 6% globally, while reducing fuel consumption and emissions.

Following the Gaza ceasefire agreement, major carriers including Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd have indicated they no longer rule out a return to Red Sea routes, signalling readiness to resume transits "as soon as conditions allow."

The extended routing has fundamentally altered global shipping patterns, forcing carriers to deploy additional vessels to maintain service schedules and significantly increasing operational costs across the industry.

Short-term challenges amid transition

Rico cautions that "a return to the Red Sea route would be a logical move, but it is also the elephant in the room." While long-term efficiency and environmental advantages could follow, the immediate consequence may be renewed disruption.

As ships arrive earlier than anticipated, port congestion could increase, clogging terminals and delaying empty containers across supply chains.

Rico writes: "Container liners might blank sailings to mitigate this effect, but overall, freight rates could rise, especially if this shift coincides with the Chinese New Year." Once the transition stabilises, the opposite effect may occur, with "significant downward pressure on rates" as capacity increases.

According to Clarksons, the container shipping order book represented 32% of installed fleet capacity as of November 2025. This substantial pipeline of new vessels adds further complexity to capacity management decisions facing carriers during this transitional period.

Carriers proceed with caution

Despite expectations of a return within six months, carriers are advancing carefully. Maersk emphasised that safety remains the top priority, alongside reliability and consistency. The sector wants to "avoid double disruption" before returning to the Suez route.

This consideration could prove particularly relevant for the Gemini alliance between Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd, launched in February 2025. The network promised customers an industry-leading arrival reliability of 90%, making stability critical.

Rico notes: "Premiums for transiting the canal surged and likely need to fall significantly," with carriers expected to "start testing the route on the backhaul to Asia with less cargo and lower reliability."

The cautious approach reflects lessons learned from previous disruptions, where hasty operational changes resulted in cascading delays and damaged customer relationships across global supply chains.

Regional impacts and safety concerns

Sub-Saharan African ports have benefited from the Red Sea crisis. Since November 2023, East African ports such as Mombasa and Dar es Salaam have experienced a 10% boost in connectivity. South African ports saw a 54.8% increase as 79% of EU-Asia vessel traffic shifted to Cape routes.

Vincent Clerc, CEO of Maersk, described the ongoing impact as "massive," explaining that extended African rotations required additional vessels and strained logistics capabilities.

Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd reaffirmed in a joint statement: "The Trans Suez route is the fastest, most sustainable and most efficient way for us to serve you with transport between Asia and Europe." While "closely monitoring" conditions, they stressed there is "no specific timing" for resuming Red Sea transits.

The World Shipping Council's Containers Lost at Sea Report 2025 recorded a rise in lost containers – from 355 to 576 – over the past year.

The report attributes this increase to "missile attacks, drone strikes and armed groups boarding and capturing vessels" in the Red Sea. Transit around the Cape increased 191% in 2024.

As the maritime industry braces for the eventual Red Sea return, the balance between risk, reliability and regulation will once again define the seaborne trade routes that underpin the global economy.