Allianz: US$125bn Cargo Awaiting Passage in Strait of Hormuz

There is an estimated US$125bn in combined vessel and cargo value, which is being carried by around 1,150 vessels, that is waiting to resume normal operations in the Persian Gulf as of 15 June 2026,

According to the latest Safety and Shipping Review by Allianz Commercial, this cargo is equivalent to 29 million gross tonnes of shipping capacity and 20,000 seafarers.

It is the first time in the Strait's history that the logistics network connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman has been closed.

For supply chain leaders, it shows how quickly geopolitical disruption can equate to logistics issues, with these figures highlighting the economic value exposed by a single maritime pinchpoint. 

Why Maritime chokepoints matter to supply chains

The Strait of Hormuz typically carries around 20-25% of global oil trade, which is equivalent to approximately 20 million barrels a day, as well as close to one quarter of global liquefied natural gas flows.

Prior to the start of the conflict between the US and Iran, between 100 and 140 vessels transited the strait every day. This fell to between two and four vessels per day at the height of the blockade, leading to more than 1,500 vessels becoming trapped at one point in May 2026 in the Persian Gulf.

A further example of maritime chokepoints was also seen with shipping attacks in the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in November 2023, which in turn triggered a 70% drop in Suez Canal traffic.

To combat this, carriers rerouted, seeing traffic in the Cape of Good Hope increase by 250%. 

For the affected supply chains, the rerouting of carriers had real costs. Rising transit times meant increased fuel consumption and operating costs for suppliers.

In response, the full report by Allianz notes that “shipping lines have had to adopt mitigation strategies including capacity redeployment, schedule adjustments, and even slower sailing speeds”.

Captain Rahul Khanna, Global Head of Marine Risk Consulting at Allianz Commercial, adds that disruption no longer needs a major war to spread through supply chains.

“Any type of event, a conflict, pandemic or a grounded vessel blocking a key port or shipping canal, can potentially cause a major disruption to shipping and supply chains,” Rahul says. “What is becoming clear is that we have to pay a price for uncertainty, shifting from 'just-in-time' to 'just-in-case' supply chains, and prioritising resilience over cost efficiency.”

Prioritising political alignment 

Due to these risks, the latest Safety and Shipping Review details how organisations are changing the way they make decisions when selecting suppliers and trade routes. Although cost and convenience remain primary factors, the changing landscape has seen geopolitical risk be increasingly prioritised. 

“Where companies once selected suppliers based on location, convenience and cost, they are now talking about sourcing goods and raw materials from countries that are politically aligned to avoid disruption from geopolitics,” Rahul says.

He also notes in the report that this change in thinking is also impacting shipping routes, with firms planning new paths for cargo that bypass riskier corridors.

There could also be hints of a more transactional approach to chokepoint access, with reports suggesting that Iran proposed a transit fee for vessels passing through the strait, as well as ‘ambiguous signals from Washington’ around potential revenue-sharing arrangements.

Régis Broudin, Global Head of Marine Claims at Allianz Commercial, warns that other states could follow this strategy from Iran: “Recent events raise concerns around freedom of navigation and set a dangerous precedent.

“Other countries are likely to draw lessons from the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz. There are many maritime chokepoints around the world that could be affected by future conflicts or political events.”

Rising costs and hidden risks

Supply chain disruption from chokepoint closures does not stay contained to shipping costs. It feeds directly into landed prices for the goods that depend on those routes.

For example, the report shows that container shipping rates are now three times more unpredictable since the Covid-19 pandemic. The World Container Index peaked at US$15,000 per 40ft equivalent unit (FEU) on certain routes during the supply/demand imbalance in 2021-22.

Meanwhile, before the latest conflict, marine hull claims costs were expected to rise by between 7% and 22% over the next five years, according to the International Union of Marine Insurance.

Régis adds: “Many of the factors driving marine hull and machinery claims inflation in recent years have not gone away, including shortages of skilled labour, long lead times for repairs and spare parts, increased values, high energy and material costs, such as for steel, and limited capacity at shipyards due to high demand for new vessels and retrofitting.”

The Allianz report found that global shipping incidents dropped 16% to fewer than 3,000 in 2025.

Despite this, fire remained a notable exception, with more than 200 incidents on large vessels recorded, which was the second-highest total in a decade. Mis-declared cargo, including batteries and chemicals, contributed to around a quarter of cargo-related incidents. Lithium-ion battery deployment rose sixfold over five years.

Tim Grindle, National Transportation Product Leader for North America at Allianz Commercial, says freight broker technology has created new opportunities for organised crime: “The speed and efficiency of freight broker technology and transactions have yielded significant benefits to the transportation and logistics industry but have created opportunities for organised crime."

Supply chain resilience amid continued disruption

For global supply chain leaders, the report’s message is that the past few years of disruption are unlikely to end, adding that the sector is moving toward a “new equilibrium”, defined by persistent uncertainty, higher risk premiums and “a greater strategic emphasis on resilience over pure cost efficiency”. 

Justus Heinrich, Global Product Leader Marine Hull at Allianz Commercial, says: “Insurance markets react quickly to crises, but the real challenge for companies is understanding how risks are interconnected. That is why resilience and risk management are becoming just as important as insurance coverage.”