Strait of Hormuz: When Will it Open and Who Gets Priority?

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, triggered by Iran in response to a US naval blockade, has pushed global supply chains into a prolonged state of disruption and effectively reached a stalemate after more than eight weeks.

The blockade began on April 13 and Iran reacted by closing the Strait to all foreign ships. On April 19, Iran’s First Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref said: “The choice is clear: either a free oil market for all, or the risk of significant costs for everyone.”

In the UK Darren Jones, Chief Secretary to the Prime Minister, said the government was examining higher energy, food and flight ticket prices as it stepped up plans to offset potential food and fuel shortages. “Our best guess is eight plus months from the point of resolution that you'll see economic impacts coming through the system.”

The extent of disruption now depends on when the Strait reopens, how quickly cargo flows return to something near normal levels and which cargoes receive priority.

Forecasts on reopening timelines remain divided.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas published a supplemental quarterly update asking market participants: “By when do you expect traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to return to normal levels?”

Of those surveyed, 20% expected normalisation by May 2026, 39% by August, 26% by November and 14% later than that.

Jason Miller, Professor of Supply Chain Management at Michigan State University in the US, writes on LinkedIn: “One reason for the substantial variance in views about the magnitude of shock we are seeing with the Strait of Hormuz closed is we have never seen the Strait of Hormuz closed.

“The concern is that with complex real-world systems, dynamics can be highly nonlinear, meaning that if the Strait remains closed too long, negative ramifications in terms of global shortages will begin manifesting at an increasing rate.”

Behind the scenes, charterers, traders and cargo owners are already modelling different reopening scenarios: a tightly controlled, toll-based corridor, a phased reopening for ‘friendly’ flags or a broader settlement that restores something closer to pre-crisis norms. Each scenario produces a different allocation and a different set of winners and losers.

In theory, international law guarantees transit passage for all commercial vessels through Hormuz. In practice, access will be rationed by a mix of politics, security and price.

States will push for priority for crude, gas and essential foodstuffs, insurers will restrict what they will cover and on what terms and Tehran will use approvals, escorts and tolls to reward compliant counterparties.

The question for shippers is no longer just if they can get through Hormuz but how far up the allocation they can get when the lane finally reopens.

How will Hormuz transit priority be decided?

Transit priority through Hormuz is likely to be a managed ranking, not a free-for-all. It will be shaped by Iran’s control of the chokepoint, a new fee and approval regime and pressure from large energy importers and insurers.

Daejin Lee, Global Head of Research at FertiStream and one of the world’s leading experts on shipping and commodities, writes on LinkedIn: “Essential dry bulk cargoes, such as grain, fertilizer and sulphur, have consistently been among the earliest movers, aligned with the humanitarian framework agreed between Iran and the UN in late March.”

Even with permission, however, not every operator will move at once. Shipowners, charterers and underwriters will weigh security guarantees, war-risk premiums and corridor reliability before committing hulls.

Which cargo will get through the Strait first?

The first ships through are likely those whose owners have secured cover, rehearsed protocols and direct coordination channels with Iranian and regional authorities, while more cautious players wait for a clearer risk picture.

Lee says: “Vessels from countries without bilateral arrangements, or those with U.S. or Israeli corporate exposure (including prior port calls at the US and Israel, and potentially at allied state ports), face a more uncertain pathway even under ceasefire conditions.

“Countries with established bilateral arrangements - China, India, Russia, Pakistan, Oman and Iraq – have demonstrated the most consistent and operationally tested access. Their vessels have been transiting with relative regularity since mid-March and are best positioned to scale up quickly within the ceasefire window.”

Securing priority transit for your supply chain

Transit through Hormuz could be won months before the lane reopens. That means aligning flags, ownership structures and counterparties with regimes Iran is prepared to work with and locking in routes and vessels that can be quickly certified under any new approval system.

War-risk cover, security protocols and direct communication channels with regional authorities will become strategic assets, not back-office details. The companies that invest now in contingency routing, bilateral relationships and operational readiness will be first in line when capacity is rationed and every sailing window counts.

Tolls, risk and who moves first

Once traffic resumes, Hormuz will function as a premium lane with variable pricing, not a neutral corridor. Operators that accept new tolls, pre-clear security documentation and demonstrate robust compliance are likely to secure the earliest slots.

Those unwilling or unable to absorb higher fees, insurance premiums and potential diversions will sit further back in the allocation. Risk appetite will be just as important as balance sheet strength. Some boards will green-light early transits under elevated risk, others will wait for more clarity. In this environment, cost, compliance and risk tolerance will jointly decide who moves first.

All of this assumes, of course, that the Strait reopens at some point in the medium term. If it does not, a crisis that is already putting unprecedented strain on global supply chains will escalate further.

Stefan Paul, CEO of Kuehne+Nagel, writes on LinkedIn: “The immediate question follows quickly: When will it be safe to pass the Strait again? For us as a global logistics provider, the questions are just as direct. What are the alternative routes? Can we shift from air to sea? When will capacity return? The honest answer is: We don’t know how the political situation will unfold.”

Until clarity emerges, supply chains are locked into a new normal, with global disruption the ultimate test of supply chain resilience.