How Resilient is the Global Food Supply Chain?

With a growing population and increasing weather disruption affecting crops, the global food supply chain is particularly vulnerable.

Facing the challenge of feeding 10 billion people by 2050, the global supply chain must prepare itself in order to develop resilience.

Through its inaugural Resilient Food Systems Index (RFSI), Economist Impact offers a roadmap to building more shock-resistant systems.

The food supply chain

Food supply chains rely on regular weather patterns, controlled temperatures and a swift logistics operation in order to reach the consumer in high quality, without waste. Recent years have seen disruption to crops, with extreme weather causing rot and damage to the yields. This instability mixed with a growing population means that demand is higher than ever, with supply chain shocks having even higher impacts.

To explore the risk supply chains are facing and how businesses can develop shock-resistant systems, Economic Impact has released its Resilient Food Systems Index. This index is part of a multi-year program from EI, exploring the future of global food systems through data, insight and policy engagement. 

The index ranks 60 countries across four pillars, exploring how resilient countries are and where they need to improve. Through this, a 42-point gap between Portugal and the Congo, the most and least resilient food systems, was revealed. 

No country revealed total resilience – instead, nearly half of the countries gained average scores of 56-71, across a 100-point scale. This shows that there is a significant area of improvement across the entire global food supply chain. 

All sustainability, net zero and sustainable procurement leaders should attend:

• Procurement & Supply Chain LIVE: The Net Zero Summit - QEII Centre, London, March 4-5
• Procurement & Supply Chain LIVE: The US Summit - Navy Pier, Chicago, April 21-22

Co-located with Sustainability LIVE, these events brings together CPOs, CSCO, CSOs, ESG leaders and senior decision-makers at a moment when sustainability, supply chains and commercial performance are increasingly interconnected.

Tickets can be booked online today for The Net Zero Summit and The US Summit. Group discounts available.

Ripple risks

A significant barrier to resilience is affordability – in 62% of countries, the cheapest healthy diet makes up almost 60% of the poorest household's income, meaning there is a lack of affordable and nutritious food that can be reached by everyone. The equitable access of nutritious food relies on strong supply and trade. 

According to the Index, the fifteen largest exporters have an average score of 71. The need to monitor risks and opportunities around the world is high – when suppliers face major shocks, the markets relying on these countries will also undergo disruption. When the countries have resilience and efficiency, global markets are stabilised and are able to feed their communities, but when they undergo volatility, the impact ripples around the world.

“The data show food systems are deeply interconnected: when countries implement targeted, coordinated action across key resilience levers, the benefits ripple across entire systems,” says Jonathan Birdwell, Global Head of Policy and Insights at Economist Impact.

“But if these interventions fall short or happen in isolation, overall system resilience will deteriorate.”

Key findings

Although there are ongoing cost-of-living concerns taking place, research found that food affordability is strong, but the gaps are there between access to nutritional food. Though food affordability was the strongest performing pillar, meeting an average score of 71.8, access and nutrition had some major inequalities within. Food prices in lower-income countries have risen the fasted, with a 23.1% increase over the past five years.

Food availability relies on strong infrastructure and a strong logistics network, but they are lagging where it counts. Transportation and logistics systems scored an average of 56.8, with the revelation that 13.2% of food is lost before reaching retail and 19% wasted within households. Though many countries support agritech, they lack the infrastructure to scale it, meaning there is an inability to deliver a system-wide impact.

Climate resilience is a major limit to food stability, with climate risk responsiveness being at an average of 56.4. Despite research in low-emissions agriculture and sustainable practices being strong, agriculture-specific efforts to adapt and mitigate risks was at an average of 34. Therefore, there is clearly a gap in translating research into action.

“Everyone needs dependable access to nutritious, affordable food,” said Brian Sikes, Board Chair and CEO of Cargill.

“This research offers valuable insights that can help strengthen the world’s food systems. Cargill is proud to do our part to advance this important work, innovating with farmers, customers, and partners across our global supply chains to help ensure food moves where it’s needed, when it’s needed."

Ways to build resilience

To address these vulnerabilities, the Index explores areas for improvement:

• Advance affordability alongside access and nutrition - agricultural trade correlates with dietary diversity. Better access to trade can result in lower costs while also offering greater choice to consumers. Through the development of diverse agricultural partnerships, countries can build more stable systems and healthier populations.
• Scale infrastructure and innovation - investing in equitable internet and mobile access, cold chain capacity and transport networks can reduce food loss and expand market access for farmers and boost innovation
• Strengthen resilience through actionable solutions - Through translating innovation into agriculture-specific adaptation and advancing policies, countries can strengthen their resilience.