Ivalua: Can UK Supply Chains Rely on Long-Term Plans?

New US tariffs on softwood lumber, timber and a range of wooden furniture imports bring fresh urgency to how companies manage supply chains.

With rates climbing as high as 50% by January 2026, the costs of materials and manufacturing for imported goods are shifting almost overnight.

Procurement and supply chain professionals in the UK are now under pressure to not just respond but reshape how they operate altogether.

As of this month, softwood lumber and timber face a new 10% tax when entering the US. 

Kitchen cabinets and vanities are hit even harder, starting with a 25% levy that is set to double from 1 January. Upholstered wooden furniture is taxed at 25%, climbing to 30% in the new year if no trade resolution is reached.

For any business dealing with North American markets or sourcing affected materials, the shock is immediate and far-reaching.

Impact on housing and construction

US President Donald Trump says the tariffs are in place to protect national security and domestic industry.

However, critics point to rising costs across construction and renovation. The housing market, already under pressure, now faces even more constraints as key materials become more expensive and supply chains become more complicated.

Buddy Hughes, Chairman of the National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB), warns of tougher times for the sector: "These new tariffs will create additional headwinds for an already challenged housing market by further raising construction and renovation costs."

The NAHB adds: "NAHB believes that imposing new lumber tariffs that make housing more expensive is not the answer.

"We are urging the administration to continue its efforts to increase the supply of timber from public lands in an environmentally-responsible manner and to quickly enter into negotiations with Canada and other global trading partners to resolve ongoing trade issues in a fair and equitable manner that eliminates tariffs on lumber and other building materials."

These comments reflect fears that increased tariffs on vital building components may stall renovation projects and make new housing developments less financially viable.

For consumers, this could translate into higher property prices and delayed home improvement plans. For businesses, particularly those dependent on transatlantic supply, the uncertainty makes longer-term forecasting almost impossible.

Shifting trade terms 

The new 10% tariff on softwood lumber comes on top of existing duties already applied to Canadian imports, pushing the total tariff burden above 45%. Canada remains one of the biggest suppliers of lumber to the US, making this a clear escalation in trade terms.

Other regions are not immune. The UK is bound by a cap of 10% on wood product tariffs under current US trade agreements.

For the European Union and Japan, maximum duties can go up to 15%. These variations create a patchwork of trade restrictions that force companies to constantly reassess both their suppliers and customer markets.

President Trump’s tariff strategy spans several sectors, including aluminium, copper, auto parts and steel.

In each case, the official message from the White House is the same: these measures are necessary to "protect against threats to US national security" and "strengthen manufacturing." But this protectionist approach comes at a price for global suppliers.

Supply chain confidence collapses

Ivalua, a spend management platform, recently surveyed 300 UK-based procurement and supply chain professionals to assess the fallout.

Three in four respondents say US tariffs have damaged their confidence in supply chains. A further 80% expect their operations to be disrupted by further tariff hikes.

The consequences are already being mapped out; 43% of respondents expect sharp rises in supply costs, which will erode profit margins. Another 42% plan to pass those increases onto customers. Meanwhile, 35% fear the US market will become harder to compete in. Meanwhile, 33% believe they will need to reconsider their entire supplier base.

Alex Saric, Smart Procurement Expert at Ivalua, says: "As imported lumber, timber and wooden furniture are the latest products hit by a torrent of US tariffs, UK businesses can forget about long-range supply chain forecasts.

“Instead, companies now find themselves reacting to economic aftershocks within a single day, undertaking supply chain fire drills to mitigate the impact of changing tariffs.

"To stay afloat, British businesses must become agile enough to turn on a dime and make informed decisions in an instant. This means identifying which suppliers and products will be affected by sudden changes and finding alternative suppliers or routes when needed.

"With more trade flashpoints looming, resilience won't come from simply reacting faster, but from planning as if disruption is permanent."

Alex's message is that resilience is no longer about recovery – it’s about assumption. Assume trade conditions will change, assume suppliers may fail, and assume disruptions will continue.

For businesses dealing with US-bound goods or affected raw materials, this mindset shift is not optional.

What’s clear is that agility is no longer a buzzword. It is the only operational strategy that gives businesses a chance to survive in today’s tariff-heavy, supply-fragile global economy.