Can The UK Find Its Own Oil?

Donald Trump’s challenge to the UK to ‘go get your own oil’ from the Strait of Hormuz threw the country’s supply chains into sharp focus, highlighting its fragile exposure to one of the world’s most critical energy corridors.

The war across the Middle East is now the largest supply disruption in history, when it comes to the world’s oil market. Brent crude, the international benchmark for oil prices, jumped 4% to US$117.50 a barrel following the US President’s remarks on social media, an apparent response to the UK’s refusal to enter the Iran war.

The International Monetary Fund warned the UK faces a significant economic shock if disruption to the Strait continues, with rising petrol and diesel prices expected to ripple through transport systems, increase the cost of moving goods and put further pressure on already strained logistics networks.

So in light of Trump’s rhetoric, what is the reality for the UK supply chain? And what does this mean for supply chain executives?

Essentially, it means a necessary reframing of fuel from a commodity price concern to a board-level resilience issue. Even without direct imports from the Strait, the UK remains exposed via global shipping networks and refining hubs.

This is a supply chain issue within a geopolitical crisis.

While the UK does not directly source oil from the Strait, the country’s reliance on oil imports is well known, so in that sense Trump is effectively reminding his ally of mutual reliance. But with the situation changing day-to-day across the Middle East there is also a new urgency to the state of the UK’s fuel supply. For executives, the implication is now clear: domestic supply cannot scale to absorb external shocks.

Oil remains a structural weakness

The UK’s oil position reflects a structural weakness, with declining domestic production alongside sustained reliance on imports. According to UK government data (gov.uk), indigenous production of primary oils rose by 2.5% in Quarter 3 2025, largely due to a rebound from maintenance disruptions a year earlier, but the longer-term trend remains downward.

This has reduced the system’s ability to absorb disruption, leaving transport, manufacturing and distribution increasingly tied to external energy sources. The UK remained a net importer of oil by 9.2 million tonnes in the quarter, underlining continued exposure to geopolitical risk and global shipping disruption, particularly through chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz.

Any instability affecting these routes feeds directly into fuel availability, freight costs and delivery reliability across the UK economy.

At the same time, lower refining output and weakening demand point to changing dynamics within domestic operations. Government figures show production of petroleum products fell by 1.9%, while overall demand dropped by 3.6%, suggesting softer activity across key sectors.

Transport demand, a core driver of goods movement, declined by 2.5%, with falls in petrol, diesel and jet fuel indicating reduced logistics intensity.

Taken together, the data points to a system shaped by external supply conditions, where constrained domestic capacity and import reliance continue to influence cost, efficiency and resilience.

How supply chains are exposed

The scale of that exposure becomes clearer when looking at where the UK sources its oil. According to Statista, around 41.9 million tonnes of crude oil and natural gas liquids were imported in 2024, with the United States alone accounting for 16.2 million tonnes.

Additional supply from producers such as Libya and Nigeria highlights the global spread of the UK’s energy supply chain - one that depends on long-distance maritime routes and remains exposed to disruption across multiple regions.

That exposure is compounded by the UK’s role in a highly interconnected trade system, where crude is imported, exported and refined across borders. The Netherlands acts as a key processing and transit hub, reinforcing how UK energy security is tied not just to supply, but to the stability of international logistics and refining networks.

At the same time, domestic production, at roughly 653,000 barrels per day in 2024, continues to decline, pointing to a future of greater reliance on external energy flows.

Ultimately, Trump’s challenge is a stark reminder that the UK’s energy supply chain is both globally integrated and structurally vulnerable.

With domestic production declining, sustained import dependence and complex logistics spanning multiple continents, even short-term disruptions in key chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz can ripple through transport, manufacturing, and distribution networks.

With the conflict across the Middle East showing few signs of easing in the near future, the problem is unlikely to go away. Securing resilient supply chains requires not just monitoring prices, but understanding the geopolitical and operational dynamics that underpin every barrel of oil.

Trump's challenge speaks to a very real problem. The UK cannot source enough oil domestically to replace imports, and even short-term disruptions abroad can have major ripple effects on supply chains.