International trade in goods has surged to as high as 10% above levels before the Covid-19 pandemic, according to the DHL Trade Growth Atlas, which maps trends in global trade.
Despite war in Ukraine, trade is projected to grow faster in 2022 and 2023 than it did over the previous decade, it suggests.
The Atlas shows that new-trade growth leaders are emerging South and South East Asia and that Sub-Saharan Africa's exports have risen dramatically.
Vietnam, India and the Philippines have also performed well both on projected trade growth through to 2026.
The report is produced in conjunction with NYU Stern School of Business. It covers 173 countries, and provides business intelligence for policymakers and industry leaders.
It analyses trade in goods worldwide, by region, for advanced and emerging economies.
DHL Growth Atlas key findings
Other take-aways of the report include:
- The pandemic has not been the major setback for global trade that many anticipated. International trade in goods has risen by 10% above pre-pandemic levels, even in the face of significant supply bottlenecks that constrained further growth.
- Prospects for future trade growth remain positive. Due to the war in Ukraine, trade growth forecasts have been downgraded, but trade is expected to grow faster in 2022 and 2023 than it did over the preceding decade.
- E-commerce sales boomed during the pandemic and forecasts point to strong cross-border e-commerce growth continuing.
DHL Express CEO John Pearson says: “Our aim is for the DHL Trade Growth Atlas to become a go-to resource for understanding and navigating shifts in the global trade landscape.
“In the current global business environment DHL can help customers rethink certain supply chains, basing them on a sensible trade-off between cost and risk, so that they are both efficient and secure.
“As a leading logistics provider, we offer solutions for all logistics requirements, and have proven to provide stable and reliable services even in volatile market environments.
“International trade is considered especially important in the present context because of its power to accelerate economic growth, reduce inflation, and enable countries and companies to access multiple sources of key inputs.”