How The Pentagon's AI Metals Tool will Reshape Supply Chains
The Pentagon’s artificial intelligence model for predicting prices and supplies of critical minerals is no longer solely a government tool.
Transferred to a non-profit group known as the Critical Minerals Forum (CMF), the model is now being positioned as a supply chain solution for manufacturers and miners navigating one of the most opaque corners of global commerce.
Launched in late 2023 by the US Department of Defense, the Open Price Exploration for National Security (OPEN) AI metals programme was designed to challenge China’s dominance in critical minerals.
It does this not by producing metals, but by predicting what they should cost, factoring in labour, processing and other real-world variables—minus what CMF backers describe as Chinese market manipulation.
The CMF now holds the reins. Led by former US diplomat Rob Strayer, the non-profit has attracted more than 30 founding members, including mining firms, manufacturers and investors.
Among them are Volkswagen, copper miner South32, rare earths specialist MP Materials and defence contractor RTX.
"Everyone in the critical minerals sector is looking for more price transparency," says Seth Goldstein, a lithium analyst at Morningstar.
"Any tool like the CMF that could help would be welcome."
The CMF aims to give both buyers and sellers the confidence to strike long-term supply deals, even when it means paying above current market rates, if the AI model shows the pricing is tied to production realities. That’s especially important when buyers are considering investing in new mines and need reliable forecasts to secure financing.
Already, the model is helping form partnerships. Nevada’s government has signalled support for working with the CMF to attract copper smelting operations. The US, with only two existing smelters, imports almost half its copper demand.
China’s grip and the race for alternatives
The CMF steps into this market as China restricts exports of rare earths, gallium and germanium—all essential to modern technology and renewable energy.
These minerals are not traded heavily, making price discovery difficult and vulnerable to manipulation. Beijing’s control of production, particularly in Indonesia and Congo, allows it to overproduce and distort market prices.
"The CMF’s model assumes that if buyers want guaranteed access, they’ll pay a premium,” one analyst involved in the project said. That’s a hard sell in markets used to volatility, but backers argue it’s vital to avoid strategic dependency on China.
When asked about the programme, the Chinese embassy in Washington replied that Beijing manages rare earths exports in line with World Trade Organization rules.
"China will continue to work with other countries to jointly undertake the responsibility of global rare earths supply," said spokesperson Liu Pengyu.
Western manufacturers like Volkswagen believe the CMF improves visibility across the supply chain, a critical issue when prices and availability of minerals like nickel or cobalt can swing on political decisions or speculative supply gluts.
Data-led strategy to attract investment
The model itself is being developed by S&P Global, Charles River Analytics, Exiger and price agency Metal Miner, with DARPA - the Pentagon’s research arm - continuing to fund the project until at least 2029. The CMF is currently free to join, with future access to more detailed data possibly subject to fees.
The AI is trained on more than 70 datasets provided by sources including the US Commerce Department, FactSet and Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. This data, much of it non-public, is where the CMF claims to offer an edge over conventional tools like ChatGPT.
Massachusetts-based rare earths start-up Phoenix Tailings hopes to use CMF data to justify higher domestic prices for metals produced in the US.
CEO Nick Myers said the information would strengthen negotiations with customers: “In a sector that is opaque, it is one of the tools to get more information."
The CMF’s campaign is now focused on signing up more members, particularly in aviation, defence and semiconductors. It’s also courting interest from foreign governments, including Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo, both key mineral producers.
There’s no plan for the CMF to become a commercial entity. It operates as a non-profit with a small staff and a board made up of its members, aiming to serve as a trusted arbiter in an industry where deals are often struck without full visibility on future costs.
As more Western mining firms look to command a “green premium” for sustainably produced metals, the CMF could offer a form of market intelligence buyers need to justify those premiums.
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