China’s Carbon Targets Depend on Green Supply Chain
China holds the largest share of global greenhouse gas emissions, contributing 30% of the total in 2023, which amounts to nearly 16 gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent.
At a United Nations summit ahead of COP30, President Xi Jinping confirms that China's updated 2025 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) will cover all economic sectors and greenhouse gases - not just carbon dioxide.
The President describes China's climate progress by stating: "Since I announced the carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals five years ago, China has built the world's largest and fastest-growing renewable energy system, built the world's largest and most complete new energy industry chain and contributed a quarter of the world's new green area."
These achievements rest on a supply chain designed to support the country’s energy transition. But maintaining momentum will require that chain to be not only vast, but also resilient, green and globally competitive.
A climate commitment built on production
Under the Paris Agreement, countries submit new NDCs every five years. The next round, due in 2025, must lay out actions through to 2035.
President Xi confirms that China's forthcoming plan will reflect greater ambition and span all industries.
These plans are more than just targets—they rely on physical infrastructure, logistics networks and raw materials. China’s renewable energy progress shows how state-led planning can expand a domestic green supply chain.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), China’s energy sector accounts for nearly 90% of the country’s greenhouse gas emissions. Power generation alone contributes 48% of CO₂ emissions from energy and industry.
Reducing emissions from this sector requires manufacturing more solar panels, wind turbines and battery storage at a speed and scale few countries can match.
China’s solar industry is already dominant, exporting equipment worldwide and lowering global prices. It also hosts some of the world’s largest solar installations, such as the Ürümqi Solar Farm. Government five-year plans have directly supported these supply chains, channelling investment, policy support and land access into clean energy development.
The IEA forecasts that low-carbon energy will overtake fossil fuels in China before 2040.
That prediction hinges on the ability to deliver enough clean energy equipment—not only to meet growing domestic demand, but to replace the country’s coal-fired fleet. China still builds and approves coal plants, so its supply chain must transition faster than the fossil fuel sector can expand.
Vehicles and value chains
Transport is another supply chain under scrutiny. Electrification can cut emissions across cars, lorries and public transport and offers indirect benefits too, including cleaner energy for buildings and factories.
EVs are already one of China’s most successful clean tech exports. In 2023, China exported 1.2 million EVs and nearly 11 million battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) were sold domestically in 2024.
However, the EV supply chain is complex. It spans lithium, nickel and cobalt extraction, battery manufacturing, semiconductor supply and electric motor production.
While China leads in battery manufacturing, its dependence on imported raw materials could become a bottleneck. International competition and geopolitical tensions also add risk.
To meet climate goals, the full supply chain, from mining and refining to final assembly, must reduce emissions. That includes transitioning to renewable-powered factories, investing in recycling and improving energy efficiency in logistics.
UN Secretary General António Guterres offers a clear view of the stakes: "As we heard today, the world is moving forward. Full-speed ahead. No group or government can stop the clean energy revolution."
Cleaner air and industry
Beyond power and transport, China must also cut emissions in heavy industry, which accounts for 36% of CO₂ emissions. This includes sectors like steel, cement and chemicals.
Electrification and renewable-powered production offer pathways to reduce emissions, but each requires new supply chains of equipment, training and industrial inputs.
In February 2025, China announces a plan to eliminate severe air pollution by 2026. This push intersects with climate goals, as coal-heavy industrial zones are some of the worst polluters. Clean energy upgrades must arrive fast enough to meet both air quality and climate objectives.
Investment in low-carbon research and development has risen by 70% since 2015 and China now accounts for 10% of global patent activity in renewables and EVs. This signals a long-term bet on innovation. That said, innovation must be matched by manufacturing and logistics capacity to deliver that tech to market and keep emissions falling.
The challenge for China is not only making clean energy, but making it at a scale that offsets its fossil fuel dependence—while doing so within a global supply system facing cost pressures, trade tensions and raw material shortages.
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