Are UK Food Supply Chains Facing a Crisis?

The UK must act swiftly to safeguard its food supply as mounting pressures—including extreme weather, trade tariffs and global instability—threaten its resilience, according to a new report. 

The nation's reliance on international food imports has left it vulnerable to disruptions, with nearly a third of its food coming from the EU alone.

The National Preparedness Commission (NPC) has warned that the country is not prepared for the scale of risks now facing its food supply. From climate change and geopolitical tensions to economic shocks and trade barriers, these challenges are making the current system unsustainable.

Tim Lang, Emeritus Professor of food policy at City University of London and author of the report, argues that the UK’s food resilience framework is dangerously outdated.

“The UK’s post-war food system, while revolutionary in its time, is no longer fit for purpose. To safeguard our future, we must prioritise resilience at every level – from local communities to national frameworks,” he says.

Food prices are already 25% higher than a few years ago and disruptions such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the economic impact of COVID-19 and trade route instability have further exposed weaknesses in the supply chain.

In 2023, the UK’s domestic harvest was one of the worst since 1983, partly due to extreme weather, adding further pressure to food availability.

Lord Toby Harris, Chair of the NPC, highlights the severity of the issue: “Food security is a cornerstone of national resilience. This report highlights the urgent need for a coordinated, whole-society approach to ensure that no one in the UK is left vulnerable in the face of future crises.”

Calls for urgent policy changes

Despite these growing risks, the UK still lacks a coherent food security strategy. The NPC’s report argues that the government must legislate to make food security a legal obligation, much like national energy or defence planning.

A key recommendation is the introduction of a Food Security and Resilience Act, which would formally recognise food as part of the UK’s critical national infrastructure.

The government’s existing Resilience Framework, published in 2022, largely ignores food security. The National Risk Register, which identifies key threats to the UK, only considers food contamination, failing to address broader risks such as supply chain collapse, price volatility and civil unrest due to shortages.

The report also calls for the creation of a National Food Security Council to provide evidence-based advice and ensure coordination between government departments, food producers and retailers.

Without such measures, the UK remains exposed to unpredictable supply shocks that could leave millions struggling to access food.

In addition to policy changes, the report highlights the need to boost domestic food production and diversify supply chains.

Post-war food security was initially strengthened through investment in British farming, followed by reliance on the Common Agricultural Policy after joining the EU.

However, since Brexit, the UK has not established a clear alternative, leaving its food system vulnerable to trade disruptions and price spikes.

A shift from ‘just-in-time’ to ‘just-in-case’

One of the major weaknesses in the UK’s food system is its dependence on just-in-time logistics, a model that prioritises efficiency but leaves little room for disruptions.

Supermarkets and suppliers operate with minimal stock levels, relying on fast-moving supply chains to keep shelves filled. While this system is cost-effective in normal conditions, it is highly vulnerable to unexpected shocks.

The report recommends a shift towards a just-in-case approach, where food reserves are strategically maintained to protect against supply chain failures.

This would require investment in storage infrastructure, improved coordination between producers and retailers and clearer guidance for consumers on emergency preparedness.

The NPC also highlights the need for community-level resilience, including supporting local food production, encouraging households to maintain emergency food stocks and establishing regional food distribution networks to reduce dependence on long supply chains.

Learning from international models, such as France and Belgium, where urban-rural food connections are stronger, could help improve resilience in the UK.

More than 70 experts—including representatives from the food industry, government, academia and community organisations—were consulted for the report. Many warned that the government’s hands-off approach to food security is dangerously short-sighted.

If action is not taken soon, future food crises could lead to severe economic and social consequences.

Tim stresses that food security is not just about having enough supply but also about ensuring affordability and accessibility: “There is too much complacency about UK food security and civil food resilience barely features at all in forward planning.”

Without urgent reform, the UK risks further instability in its food supply chains, with rising costs and potential shortages affecting millions.

The NPC’s recommendations provide a roadmap for a stronger, more resilient food system, but the government must act now to prevent future crises.

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