easyJet Loss: Iran War Disrupting Aviation Supply Chains

easyJet’s warning of a significant first-half loss serves as a live case study in how fragile aviation fuel supply chains have become during the Middle East crisis.

The UK low‑cost carrier said it expects to report a headline loss before tax of between £540m (US$732m) and £560m (US$757) for the first half of its financial year 2026.

It identified rising fuel costs and market uncertainty linked to the Iran war as key drivers behind its expected losses.

EasyJet CEO Kenton Jarvis paints a calm picture. “Pricing remains competitive,” he says, though there is no denying the strain on airlines as the crisis centred on the Strait of Hormuz shows no sign of abating.

Kenton adds that demand for flights in the three months to the end of September will “very much depend on what the late summer market is like, and obviously what happens to the conflict in the next week or two.

“We only ever in this industry have three to four weeks visibility [of jet fuel supplies], and that is the same as it was pre-crisis.

“We have visibility to the middle of May, and we have no concerns.

“What we’re seeing is airports and fuel suppliers working well to bring jet fuel to the airports.”

European airlines adapt to Iran crisis

While passenger demand remains resilient, easyJet’s outlook underlines a critical shift for airline operators and their partners: profitability is now as dependent on energy security and price volatility as it is on load factors and ticket yields.

Across Europe and beyond, airlines are adjusting networks, fares and fleets in response to the same energy shock.

In Scandinavia, carriers have cancelled hundreds of flights, explicitly citing high oil and jet fuel prices as the reason previously viable services no longer make economic sense.

In the Netherlands, KLM has cut dozens of return flights from Amsterdam Schiphol after rising kerosene costs eroded route profitability.

Network carriers in Germany are accelerating aircraft retirements and reshaping fleets to cope with elevated fuel burn per seat.

Global pattern of energy volatility

Further afield, North American airlines have warned that current jet fuel levels could add billions of dollars in annual expense, prompting selective route cuts and the introduction of new surcharges on long-haul tickets.

In Asia-Pacific, some operators have already suspended routes and signalled they could trim 10 to 20% of flights if jet fuel remains at current levels, framing the situation explicitly as a fuel-driven capacity risk.

Taken together, these moves show that easyJet’s experience is part of a global pattern in which energy volatility is forcing airlines to re‑engineer networks and re‑price risk across the value chain.