Inside the Resilience Test of EU Energy Security

The European Commission has published a 'fitness check' on EU laws, examining energy security and electricity risk preparedness across the 2017-2024 period.

In the evaluation, it explores how energy trends shifted throughout this time, caused by various geopolitical events and how the EU protected its users.

Through this research, the European Commission have a strong understanding of changes which need to be made in order to protect the security of the EU's energy.

What is energy security?

The EU energy policy focuses on three key pillars: sustainability, affordability and energy security. Energy security is met by building a long-term equilibrium between supply and demand, as well as ensuring it has he resilience to react to systematic shocks.

It is predominantly ensured by well-connected and strong-functioning energy markets, meaning energy is able to flow to where it is needed through price signals, and also meets sufficiency and efficiency efforts. The Commissioner for Energy and Housing is conducting a review of the security of the EU's energy supply framework in order to ensure it can meet the challenges of the current energy transition. 

The energy security of a region is also directly linked to the economic security and economic competitiveness. As geopolitical turbulence translates to supply threats, this leads to more volatility with energy prices. With ongoing global tension, the need for a resilient energy framework is more important than ever. 

This fitness check report in particular examines the 2017 Gas Security of Supply Regulation and 2019 Electricity Risk Preparedness Regulation. These are the main two regulations which dictate the energy security within the EU, with both being central to the 2021-23 energy crisis which arose during the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022. 

The report is the starting analysis of the legislation and the first step in revising the framework.

Import diversification

The energy sector for the EU has shifted significantly since 2017, with the increase of renewable energy sources (RES). In 2017, the share of renewables was at 18.4%, but had risen to 24.5% by 2023. Though fossil fuels still remain the primary source of energy across the EU, the use of it has seen a decline - shares in coal were at 14.7% in 2017, falling to 9.6% in 2023.

For natural gas, the EU is still reliant on imports, with a decline in domestic production. Prior to its invasion of the Ukraine, Russia was the dominant supplier to the EU, responsible for 45% of overall imports. Since then, Norway has taken the role of the main provider, representing 33% of imports in 2024, followed by Russia (19%) and the US (17%). 

In discussing the Russian oil phase-out, Ditte Juul-Jorgensen, the Director-General of the European Commission's Directorate-General for Energy, stated on LinkedIn: "Our efforts started in January 2022, when gas supply and storage across the EU had been weaponised in what turned out to be the run-up to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

"It was clear that the high level of dependence on Russia for our gas supply was a risk to our security and our economy."

The increase of liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports follows the conflict with Russia, with many countries in the EU moving to end their dependency on Russian gas by 2027. From 10% in 2017, gas imports from LNG rose to 37% in 2024. The main supplier of this in 2024 was the US (46%), followed by Russia (20%) and Qatar (12%). 

The diversification of EU gas supplied across the 2017-2024 period shows both the shifting trends of energy use, and the formation of more conscious supply chains. Through improved diversification, the EU is creating a more resilient energy value chain, preventing further crises such as the 2021-2023 one.

Report findings

Regarding effectiveness, the fitness check ensured the EU's preparedness and resilience was increased, due to enhanced transparency. However, it also showed that there had been prior weaknesses, with the need for more thorough risk assessments and scenario planning, with specific focuses on cybersecurity, hybrid threats, access to critical energy transition minerals and climate change.

With efficiency, the check noted that the main framework costs were administrative and infrastructure ones, with indicators pointing to low absolute costs compared to high costs of potential supply crises. It finds the cost on national administration can be high in terms of manpower, and there is ample opportunity for streamlining framework and making it more simplified. 

While examining coherence, everything was mostly consistent with each other and legislation, but there is a need for more coordination regarding security of supply, with more additional measures required due to increased electrification and new geopolitical risks. 

It was found these regulations have ensured EU added value, by encouraging cooperation, risk mitigation and security measures, but there is still an opportunity to create more depth with mitigation.

The report demonstrated that the investigated regulations are relevant, but the framework does need to be adapted in order to meet ongoing changing energy markets and emerging threats.