HSBC: Are Trade Tensions Upping Costs for Logistics Sector?

The transport and industrial sector is already grappling with cost increases and more challenges may lie ahead.

According to HSBC's latest Trade Pulse Survey, 63% of businesses in this space say they're already experiencing higher costs due to tariffs and ongoing global trade disruptions. And there’s little sign of relief: the majority expect these pressures to intensify.

The survey draws insight from 5,750 international businesses across 13 global markets, focusing on how companies are responding to trade uncertainty. Among all industries, 66% of firms say they’ve already felt the financial impact.

In the transport and industrial sector, that figure is only slightly lower than the average, with businesses citing a direct link between policy shifts and rising operational expenses.

What’s more worrying for many in the sector is that 71% of respondents expect these cost increases to continue over the next six months. That same percentage say the financial impact will still be felt two years from now.

The findings suggest this is not a temporary setback, but rather an ongoing burden for companies tied into international trade flows.

The uncertainty around tariffs has also clouded the ability of firms to predict what lies ahead.

Only 18% of transport and industrial businesses say they feel confident in their ability to accurately forecast demand and costs over the next year. This is slightly below the cross-sector average of 21%, indicating that unpredictability weighs heavier in this industry than others.

Vivek Ramachandran, Head of Global Trade Solutions at HSBC, spells out the challenge: “With more than 70% of companies anticipating sustained cost increases, and businesses facing an average 18% drop in revenue, the imperative for strategic adaptation is clear.

"Navigating this climate requires not only agility, but strong partnerships to ensure sustained growth in a shifting global economy.”

Mixed progress on nearshoring

Despite the mounting pressure, not all firms are equally prepared.

Just over half (51%) of those in the transport and industrial sector say they are informed and are taking active steps to prepare for continued disruption.

Only 34% go further to say they are both informed and prepared. That leaves a notable portion of businesses that may still be navigating this climate reactively rather than proactively.

One strategy under consideration is nearshoring — relocating business operations closer to home markets. This is gaining more traction in transport and industrial than in other sectors. More than half (55%) of businesses in this category say they are planning nearshoring activities, compared with 49% across all industries.

However, when it comes to action, just 29% of transport and industrial firms have already moved forward with nearshoring, lagging behind the 34% average.

This gap between intention and execution highlights the barriers firms face when trying to restructure supply chains.

For many, the costs, logistics and strategic uncertainties of relocating operations still outweigh the potential benefits — even in an era of tariff instability.

US and China’s role in shaping global trade 

The tension between China and the USA continues to dominate the global trade conversation.

A year marked by retaliatory tariffs and fluctuating diplomatic relations has created fresh volatility for firms depending on imports and exports between these two economies.

Interestingly, only 29% of transport and industrial businesses say they are looking to increase their reliance on the USA, compared with 39% across all sectors.

By contrast, nearly half (48%) are exploring deeper ties with China — a slight uptick on the all-sector average of 44%. These figures suggest a more pragmatic than ideological approach to trade relationships, with firms looking for practical advantages amid the turbulence.

HSBC’s survey draws on the insights of C-suite and senior management professionals, all with strategic and financial responsibilities, spread across Europe, Asia, the Middle East and the Americas.

It paints a picture of a sector under pressure, weighing up options and making cautious moves in a landscape where unpredictability has become the norm.