Geopolitics Pushes Supply Chains into Permanent Reset
Global supply chains are entering a new phase where disruption is the operating backdrop rather than a shock event.
The fifth Allianz Trade Global Survey of 6,000 companies across 13 major trading markets shows exporters remain confident about growth yet are rewiring trade flows and finance to cope with conflict, tariffs and tightening liquidity.
For supply chain leaders the picture is one of steady demand, higher risk and a structural shift toward resilience over pure efficiency. The survey finds that 75% of exporters still expect positive export growth in 2026, even after the latest escalation in the Middle East and a year of US tariff volatility.
Aylin Somersan Coqui, Allianz Trade Group CEO, says "The picture is clear: export expectations are holding, but risks are intensifying and buffers are thinning. In a world of business as unusual, success increasingly depends on the ability to anticipate shocks, secure payments, and adapt supply chains. Not just on finding new sources of growth."
That resilience contrasts sharply with 2025, when “Liberation Day” tariffs triggered a 40 point plunge in export optimism. Beneath today’s headline confidence sit softer macro foundations, with global GDP growth projected at 2.6% and inflation at 4.3% in 2026 alongside rising fiscal and cost pressures.
Geopolitics has clearly moved to the top of the risk agenda. Around 65% of firms now rank geopolitical and political risk as their primary concern, ahead of supply chain complexity, which has dropped to third place.
Supply related issues such as supplier bankruptcy and input shortages have surged to second position, reflecting global insolvencies that remain well above pre pandemic norms. The economic cost of supply chain complexity was estimated at $US4.7tn in 2025, more than twice its 2017 level, with a majority linked to US trade flows.
Logistics and energy sit at the sharp end of that risk shift. Six in 10 companies report concern about disruption to shipping and rising energy and commodity prices, with exposure varying sharply by geography.
Indian and Chinese companies more insulated
Vietnamese, Polish, British and US firms report particularly high levels of anxiety. Indian and Chinese companies appear more insulated thanks to stronger buffers and alternative sourcing options, and even in a benign scenario recovery in chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz is expected to be gradual.
That uncertainty is accelerating operational adjustments across supply chains. More than half of surveyed firms are already seeking alternative shipping routes or carriers, with activity most intense in Vietnam, the US and India.
Many are working more closely with customs brokers to speed border clearance and are reworking delivery schedules. Process and routing changes are outpacing formal contract renegotiation, while trade finance is tightening, with 43% of companies expecting payment terms to deteriorate and 40% more worried about non payment risk, particularly in pharmaceuticals, construction and technology hardware.
One year on from the latest US tariff round, supply chains have already shifted direction. Four out of five firms have adjusted trade and logistics routes to avoid higher tariffs and geopolitical friction, even as US tariff rates remain close to 9%.
De-risking strategies have gone mainstream, with companies building inventory, diversifying markets, sourcing from new suppliers and rerouting via third countries. Contract terms are changing as exporters reduce Delivered Duty Paid exposure and importers increase Free On Board usage to gain more control over logistics and tariff risks.
ESG dividing opinion
Alongside geopolitical and financial stress, the survey highlights a fractured consensus on ESG and an uneven picture on AI. Overall ESG commitment has dropped sharply since 2025, with steep declines in China and the UK but more resilient engagement in Germany and parts of Europe.
AI is now almost ubiquitous in exporters’ operations, but scaled deployment and growth expectations vary widely between regions. Uncertainty over return on investment remains the main barrier.
Export growth remains within reach but will increasingly depend on the ability to de risk networks, secure finance and turn new technologies into tangible resilience rather than incremental complexity.
