Geopolitical Resilience: The 2026 Standard for Supply Chains

The era of relative geopolitical calm in Europe has come to a definitive end. As we navigate 2026, the global transport and logistics (TSL) sector is facing a fundamental redefinition of what it means to be resilient. 

Geopolitical instability is now regarded as the single greatest threat to global supply chains. According to a 2025 Reuters Events survey of 450 logistics managers, 74% believe geopolitical factors generate the most serious risks–a massive leap from just 33% in 2024.

In this new reality, the TSL sector is no longer just a commercial engine; it has been officially recognised as a key pillar of European security. This shift is characterised by the 'dual-use' concept, where logistics capabilities and resources are deployed for both civilian and military purposes.

The Małaszewicze warning: a case study in fragility

The report highlights the September 2025 border crisis at Małaszewicze, a village in eastern Poland, known primarily as a major railway border crossing and one of the most important transshipment points in Europe, particularly for rail freight traveling between Western Europe and the CIS/Asia (specifically China).

When the border with Belarus was closed for just two weeks in response to military exercises, the consequences were severe. The blockage resulted in an economic loss of at least €450m (US$522.6m) for the EU. Consequently, China is now accelerating the development of the Middle Corridor and Arctic Sea routes, perceiving current corridors as unstable.

The digital frontier: intelligence over redundancy

While only 5% of managers feel fully prepared for these disruptions, digital transformation is emerging as the primary remedy. Resilience in 2026 is no longer just about physical redundancy, but about intelligence, visibility and collaboration at scale.

Open, interoperable logistics platforms like CargoON, part of the Trans.eu Group have evolved into trusted 'control towers'.

Sjoerd Eekelaar, Chief Customer Officer at CargoON, emphasises this strategic shift: "CargoON supports this shift by offering a secure ecosystem communicating seamlessly with TMS, WMS and ERPs to ensure full transparency and safer, faster execution. The future of logistics is built on open data, shared standards and platforms turning complexity into strategic advantage.”

This connectivity enables shippers to anticipate disruptions and reconfigure routes instantly. However, a significant 'trust gap' remains: while 52% of leaders use AI for decision support, only 19.5% of European companies trust AI to make autonomous decisions.

Looking ahead: 2026–2027 trends

As we look toward 2027, the TSL sector must prepare for a dual challenge: rising geopolitical tension and the costs of the EU's climate policy. The introduction of ETS2 is expected to increase freight transport costs by as much as 20-30%.

In response, we are observing a rapid regionalisation of supply chains. Companies are shifting to intra-regional networks and local warehousing to regain control and achieve 'anti-fragility'–the ability not just to survive disruptions, but to grow because of them.

The January 2026 Market Insights report provides a comprehensive roadmap for navigating this volatile landscape. It includes detailed audits of infrastructure bottlenecks, deep dives into Chinese port dominance and strategic frameworks for building digital resilience.

[Download the Full MION 2026 Report Here]