Gartner: The Cost of Reducing Entry-Level Hiring for AI

Today's supply chains are filled with constant disruption, the ongoing integration of AI and a growing workforce gap.

In order to mitigate risk and fill the gaps, more businesses are turning towards AI to predict events or to take on manual tasks.

However, some businesses are using this as an opportunity to reduce entry-level hiring and replace it with AI – but Gartner warns that this could increase costs by 2030. 

Warnings to supply chain leaders

As a partner to C-Level executives and technology providers, Gartner offers strong solutions to businesses round the world, helping implement AI strategies and achieve their goals. Gartner acts as a strong authority on AI, exploring costs, use cases and risks. 

At its Orlando Gartner Supply Chain Symposium/Xpo, analysts explored the impact that AI is having on global supply chain hiring processes. Using survey data and insights, the company explored how AI advancements could be causing risks for businesses in the long-term.

The technology is currently seen as a cost saver – hiring processes are expensive and training staff adds up to a great sum. Though AI has an initial cost, many agents can adapt without extra costs. As a result, it has been viewed as a cost-effective measure to an ongoing and costly supply chain issue.

However, Gartner warns that by 2030, 75% of businesses which have opted for AI use instead of hiring for entry-level roles in 2026 will begin to pay premiums. This will be a 15% charge for early-career professionals. 

“Many organisations are attempting to manage uncertainty today by pausing entry-level hiring, but they will face talent shortages for themselves in the near future,” says Simon Bailey, VP Analyst in Gartner’s Supply Chain practice. 

“AI is not a ‘plug and play’ replacement for people. Organisations that stop hiring and fail to develop early-career professionals, will soon face talent pipeline gaps, employee dissatisfaction and elevated hiring pay premiums, especially for AI-native talent.” 

Survey insights

In a Gartner survey, conducted from July to October 2025, utilising insights from 509 supply chain leaders from industries around the world, the impact of AI was clear. Most leaders anticipate advancements from AI and agentic AI to be the core drivers of supply chain performance in the upcoming three years. This demonstrates how AI is being widely adopted and utilised by companies for a range of tasks.

The survey also revealed that 55% of respondents anticipate a decline in entry level hiring, predominantly caused by agentic AI advancements. At the symposium, Simon explained that the AI impact will not just be seen through headcount reduction, but through human-AI collaboration. This focuses on relying on AI to support, augment and automate decision-making.

Companies which maintain early career talent development alongside AI and business skills will see a more significant benefit. This will allow senior level staff to work on high-level strategic work and decision-making.

Protecting the supply chain

Gartner states that CSCOs should continue to grow their talent pipeline, alongside the introduction of AI. The company recommends businesses should:

• Develop audit supply chain processes and AI initiatives - this will help leaders to understand their talent impact and help redefine the conversation to focus on how AI can help create new talent pathways and how this can benefit the company.
• Redesign workflows and roles - this should help ensure continuous learning and removal of friction. Through hands-on learning and team building, supply chains gain more resilience and agility, with greater skills readiness.
• Future-proof the talent pipeline - through investments into learning, coaching, mentoring and AI simulations, supply chains will be protected and the emerging workforce will be more developed.
• Strengthen Employee Value Proposition - leaders should partner with CHROs and HR to offset wage pressure. Through this, they can target the most valuable benefits, including work-life balance. 

Though many businesses are beginning to favour an AI workforce instead of a human one, Gartner warns them that this is not the best option. Instead, organisations should continue to grow its human workforce, but adapt how they are training it and using it in relation to AI.