Gartner: 75% Organisations Will Drop Green Supply Chains

Gartner, the American research and advisory company, predicts that 75% of organisations will drop their voluntary sustainable packaging targets by 2028.

At present, most companies which boast sustainable packaging products do so on a voluntary basis, surpassing guidelines and targets set by governments.

However, many of these organisations are struggling to meet their own targets, suggesting an alignment towards legislative guidelines instead. 

Failure to go green

In 2023, sustainable packaging adoption jumped to 50% - up from 36% in 2021. Despite this, however, organisations are struggling to meet their sustainable packaging targets.

In recent years, governments around the world have began enforcing responsible packaging. In the EU, all plastic packaging must be recyclable, reusable or compostable by 2030. 

Global plastic production is surpassing 400 million tonnes annually, with only 9% of plastic being recycled.

Two of the biggest brands prevalent in plastic waste are The Coca-Cola Company and PepsiCo. 

Despite big brands, such as Walmart and Unilever, setting sustainable targets, many of them are falling short, blaming unavailable infrastructure and consumer behaviour.

“By the end of this year, Gartner predicts that 90% of public sustainable packaging commitments will remain unmet, as organisations continue to rely on plastics and single-use packaging,” says John Blake, Senior Director Analyst in Gartner's Supply Chain practice.

“With packaging rules rapidly evolving, CSCOs must shift their focus to meeting extended producer responsibility (EPR) requirements, which will demand new investments in data management, package design and compliance resources.”  

Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) is a tool to reduce the environmental impact of packaging by holding producers accountable for their packaging. 

This regards financial responsibility and operational responsibility. 

12 US states have introduced legislation on packaging EPR in 2025, whilst seven bills have passed in the US. 

Many programmes encourage producers to join a producer responsibility organisation (PRO) which develops a producer responsibility plan to support and manage these producers. 

In the US, producers pay a fee to the PRO and the funds are then distributed to cover costs required by programme legislation. 

Higher costs and preparations

Gartner says that Chief Supply Chain Officers need to prepare internal profit and loss (P&L) owners for increased costs as a result of the switch to EPR requirements. 

New packaging legislation could rise to millions of dollars, as the financial responsibility shifts to producers and manufacturers. 

Under EPR and PRO ruling, companies need to submit data regarding packaging materials, quantities and recyclability. 

This is to ensure they are complying with jurisdiction and meeting those targets. 

“Many organisations are currently unprepared for these new requirements, lacking the data management tools and resources needed for compliance. Longer term, legislation can lead to significant costs for PRO fees and fines, alternative materials and supply chain adjustments,” John adds.

Design strategies are now fully a result of legislation, as these policies are now driving product and packaging.

When creating packaging, companies must now focus on sustainability, labeling and reuse requirements. 

If companies cannot adapt adequately, they may face fees and higher long-term costs.

Essential steps for leaders

Gartner has laid out some recommended steps for CSCOs.

1. Education - All functional teams should be educated on the implications and risks of EPR legislation. These teams include, but are not limited to, marketing, manufacturing and R&D.

2.  Engagement - The supply chain ecosystem should have a space to address issues and concerns about sourcing sustainable materials and return networks like collection. This relates to suppliers, procurement teams, transportation teams and manufacturing teams.

3. Incorporate legislation - Packaging legislation should be considered throughout strategies as the legislation impacts design, material sourcing and manufacturing decisions.

John concludes: “Organisations that fail to prioritise packaging legislation in their design and sourcing strategies risk losing market access and eroding margins as EPR fees rise.

"Proactive compliance protects market position and also creates opportunities for differentiation in an increasingly regulated environment.”

Companies must consider circularity when designing their packaging, as well as ensuring materials align with recycling infrastructure. 

Whilst these changes will cost companies more in short-term periods, not aligning with them will result in long-term and larger pay outs.