Forecasting the Future: Powered by Culture and Creativity

Every supply chain professional knows that demand forecasting sits at the heart of planning strategy. It supports crucial decisions, answering questions including how much to produce, when to ship and where to store stock. 

Forecasting helps businesses stay ahead of demand without overproducing or understocking, using past sales information, consumer behaviour and wider market signals to predict stock flow. 

Handled well, it gives companies a clearer picture of what lies ahead, supporting everything from inventory and logistics to consumer satisfaction and business responsiveness. An accurate forecast means the right product lands in the right place at the right time. 

However, forecasts don’t exist in perfect conditions; disruptions are common, markets shift quickly and data can become patchy. That’s where versatile strategies come into their own. 

Demand forecasting: Where flexibility meets structure

One such mindset is “Jugaad”, which Parmeshwaran Iyer, Chief Supply Chain Officer at Apollo Tyres, describes as “a Hindi word that, like many others, doesn’t fully translate into English, but it can be considered an ingenious fix.”

He continues: “It’s a mindset many of us in India grow up with, particularly the idea that, when you don’t have the perfect tools or conditions, you adapt and find a way forward anyway.”

The approach suits the unpredictable world of forecasting, where demand isn’t always predictable and data is often incomplete. Parmeshwaran believes Jugaad thinking has a place alongside structured processes.

“Of course, this needs to be balanced,” he says “Supply chains rely on structure, process and discipline. However, I’ve always believed in a bit of improvisation – 20% Jugaad can go a long way.

“It’s about knowing when to allow for creative problem-solving within the broader framework, so you stay agile without compromising on control.”

Parmeshwaran’s career spans global industries from Hamburg to Dubai. Before joining Apollo Tyres he led digital supply chain strategy at Beiersdorf. Returning to India, he was drawn to Apollo’s culture of “innovative thinking, a ‘One Family’ culture and a commitment to making a positive impact.”

Guy Armstrong, Senior Vice President of Cloud Applications at Oracle for the UK and Ireland, also works across supply chain and manufacturing sectors.

He explains: “I’ve spent much of my career at the intersection of technology and industry, especially across the manufacturing and supply chain sectors, helping a wide range of customers navigate change and get the most from their digital strategies.”

For Oracle, that includes its Fusion Cloud Supply Chain & Manufacturing (SCM) platform, which connects supply chain processes and supports rapid adaptation to change. 

Guy says the company is “always looking at how we can innovate with AI,” with role-based AI agents that cut admin time and help workers focus on decision-making. The platform also includes Oracle Fusion Cloud Global Trade Management, helping teams manage cross-border trade and respond to shifting regulations.

Meanwhile, Chris Clowes, Executive Director at supply chain consultancy SCALA, draws on experience from Boots and Costa Coffee to support clients across Europe.

“Our role,” he begins “is to guide businesses in combining robust forecasting methodologies with practical market insight. 
“Growing our European client base and diversifying our consultancy skills will be key goals as I take on a more strategic role within SCALA.” 

He adds: “Our advisory approach helps companies to build forecasting processes that are more resilient and better equipped to respond to sudden shocks in demand or supply – which are becoming increasingly commonplace.”

Choosing tradition or transformation

At Apollo Tyres, a balance of these structured methods and creative problem-solving is deployed, combining continuous improvement principles like Kaizen and lean thinking with Jugaad. 

“When a disruption occurs,” Parmeshwaran explains “such as a port closure or supplier delay, we sometimes need to adapt faster than our systems were originally designed for. That is where Jugaad plays a role.”

One particularly good example is how local transport teams create WhatsApp groups to communicate delivery updates in real time. The informal fix evolves into a lightweight mobile logistics app with GPS tracking, delivery proof and communication tools – avoiding reliance on clunky desktop systems.

Apollo Tyres’ manufacturing footprint also supports agility. With five plants in India and two in Europe, the company flexes capacity regionally.

Parmeshwaran expands: “While our systems are strategic and codified, our ability to reconfigure quickly when conditions shift reflects a Jugaad-inspired approach using what’s available, solving problems quickly and doing so without breaking structure.”

Technology also plays a vital role, with Guy highlighting how Oracle’s AI-powered trade management system helps teams keep up with changing tariffs and regulatory rules. Visibility is critical, he says, enabling fast responses to policy changes and avoiding bottlenecks. 

Meanwhile Chris focuses on the financial benefits of forecasting: “More accurate forecasts reduce stock-outs and cut excess inventory, freeing up working capital and lowering costs.”

His advice includes diversifying supplier networks, designing warehouses that adapt to changing product lines and investing in digital visibility to catch disruption early.

Adaptability also means building strong cross-functional relationships. Forecasting impacts marketing, sales, operations and finance; without alignment, even the most accurate data can be ignored or misinterpreted.

Chris encourages a collaborative mindset: “Forecasting is not just a technical process – it’s a shared discipline that depends on trust, dialogue and clear objectives across business functions.”

This emphasis on collaboration and mutual ownership turns forecasting from a siloed activity into a shared responsibility that builds resilience across the supply chain.

The future of supply chain adaptability

Looking ahead, Guy sees AI “undoubtedly shaping the present and the future of supply chain management and cross-border logistics."

From product classification to transit prediction, AI tools already help teams plan more effectively. He explains that these tools allow businesses to “track inventory down to the container – even monitoring details like shipment temperature – and share that insight across the business.”

Parmeshwaran agrees, but adds that resilience isn’t just about tools. 

“Resilience will matter more than ever,” he says. Supply chains must be “efficient and adaptable” – supported by digital tools, of course, but also by the people who make the system work.

“You can have the best digital tools and processes, but it’s people who drive decisions,” adds Parmeshwaran. “Culture matters. If you want a supply chain that’s resilient, sustainable and fast, you need to invest in the talent behind it.”

This investment includes building digital fluency across the supply chain workforce,  ensuring tools are used effectively and insights don’t get stuck in silos. 

Chris urges supply chain leaders to look beyond short-term efficiency: “Shift your focus from cultivating short-term efficiency and look at building longer-term resilience and adaptability into your supply chain.”

This combination of AI, cultural mindset and human expertise is shaping the supply chain of the future. Whether adapting through grassroots tools, global platforms or hands-on forecasting, companies that mix structure with flexibility stand a better chance of staying ahead.