Ship Movement in Strait of Hormuz as IMF Issues UK Warning

Fresh warnings from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) combined with emerging evidence of continued shipping through the Strait of Hormuz underline the fragility of global trade flows amid the Middle East crisis.

Ship tracking data analysed by BBC Verify showed four Iran-linked vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz despite Washington’s naval blockade.

Data indicated a mix of bulk carriers and sanctioned tankers moving both east and west through the corridor, with some having recently called at Iranian ports.

Analysts note that some of this activity may involve 'spoofing' - the broadcasting of false positions to disguise routes - highlighting the growing opacity and risk within one of the world’s most critical supply chain chokepoints.

The uncertainty surrounding fuel, energy and the resilience of global supply chains continues to ramp up.

Even where flows continue, visibility is reduced, compliance risks are heightened and routing decisions become more complex, adding friction across already strained logistics networks.

At the same time, the IMF has cut its UK growth forecast for 2026 to 0.8%, down from 1.3% projected earlier this year before the escalation of the Iran conflict.

Effects of a prolonged conflict

The downgrade reflects sustained energy price shocks, tighter monetary conditions and expectations that elevated costs will persist into 2027. Crucially, the Fund warned a prolonged conflict could push the global economy “off course” and trigger a wider recession.

For the UK - identified as the hardest-hit advanced economy due to its reliance on imported energy - the implications are structural.

Supply chains are being forced to adapt not just to disruption, but to a lower-growth, higher-cost environment that could redefine operating models over the medium term.

While higher fuel and input costs have already filtered through transport, manufacturing and logistics networks, the more significant shift is now emerging on the demand side.

As inflation remains elevated and interest rate cuts are delayed, consumption and investment are weakening - translating into reduced order volumes, tighter margins and increasing pressure on working capital.

Reshaping freight markets

Dr Leo Harris, Founder of Enterprise Risk Support Services, warns the real impact is still to come. Writing on LinkedIn, he noted: “The more significant issue is the systemic disruption to global supply chains.

“When key shipping routes and logistics corridors come under sustained pressure, the impact is felt not only in energy supply, but across food, medicines, electronics and everyday consumer goods."

That dual pressure - ongoing disruption alongside weakening demand - is already beginning to reshape freight markets.

Early indicators point to softening volumes and recalibrating capacity, signalling a potential downturn in global trade flows.

Unlike previous cycles, however, this correction is unfolding against a backdrop of persistent geopolitical instability, limiting visibility and delaying recovery expectations.

Volatility and uncertainty continues to hang over the Strait of Hormuz, despite the apparent movement of ships.

Leading maritime expert Federica Maiorano, advisor at MxM Connect, noted a number of contributing strains on global supplies. She says: “Supply chain impacts are currently driven more by risk perception than physical disruption, as the Strait of Hormuz remains functionally blocked and insecure.

“Rerouting, higher insurance premiums, and tighter vessel availability are already contributing to longer lead times and increased freight rate volatility.

“Energy trade flows are adjusting at the margin, particularly for LNG and crude, which is influencing vessel positioning across both tanker and bulk segments.

“In response, cargo owners are adopting more cautious inventory strategies, including building buffer stocks and diversifying sourcing and routing options.

“Pricing along supply chains is becoming more sensitive to freight and energy cost fluctuations, with risk premiums increasingly reflected even if in the presence of the nominal ceasefire."

In the UK, the IMF’s warning also raises critical questions for policymakers. While energy-driven inflation remains a concern, aggressive rate hikes risk further suppressing demand.

For supply chains, policy missteps could amplify volatility - particularly in sectors already operating on thin margins.

In response, UK businesses are accelerating efforts to build more adaptive supply chains, investing in real-time visibility, scenario planning and diversified sourcing strategies that prioritise flexibility over efficiency.