Dun & Bradstreet: Why Supply Chain Optimism is Declining

Dun & Bradstreet, a leading global provider of commercial data, business insights and analytics, has released its Global Business Optimisation Insights (GBOI) report, which shows executives are losing optimism in global supply chains.

The Q3 2025 report explores growing business concerns around the world as a result of increased uncertainties surrounding supply chains.

Collecting responses from more than 10,000 executives across 32 economies and 17 sectors, the Q3 report shows that leaders around the world are becoming increasingly concerned about supply chain risks.

Growing instability means decreasing optimism

The 2025 quarterly reports have seen a consistent drop in optimism as a result of macroeconomic uncertainty and global supply chain concerns.

Trade is seeing disruption due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and investment flows are becoming fragmented.

In Q1, there was a 12.9% drop in optimism, followed by a 1.3% drop for Q2. 

The GBOI saw a further 6.5% decline due to the instability around the world. This portrays the lowest amount of optimism since late 2023.

As a result, only 46% of business leaders anticipate de-escalation, whereas 54% believe trade tensions will either remain the same or intensify.

Neeraj Sahai, President of Dun & Bradstreet International comments: “Geopolitical instability in the Middle East, persistent trade frictions and concerns about slowing global demand have contributed to a significant shift in business risk appetite among survey respondents.

“With global conditions remaining unsettled, many businesses are re-evaluating their investment priorities and reinforcing resilience strategies to navigate ongoing uncertainty.”

A sector break-down

The manufacturing sector has seen the biggest decline in business sentiment, at -8.3%, as opposed to other services at -5.4%.

The sectors which see more global supply shifts and trade policy changes–such as metal manufacturing, automotive and capital goods–were the most affected out of any.

As companies face supply disruptions and high input costs due to geopolitical disruptions, or slowing demand due to uncertainty, businesses are struggling to remain optimistic about their output.

The largest quarterly declines in optimism about operating margins were seen amongst the manufactures of discretionary spending goods.

Some of the sectors that people rely on most are seeing increasingly concerning declines in optimism, showing just how much every sector is affected by geopolitical disruption.

Risk mitigation

In order to reduce the effect of geopolitical uncertainty from conflict, climate change and tariff instability, many businesses are looking to make their supply chains more domestically-focused. 

34% of businesses in the report have a plan to mitigate risk caused by rising tariffs through domestic growth. 

As a result of US President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs, more than 50% of the businesses surveyed that reside outside of the US are turning to partners outside of the US, preferring alternatives such as the EU and Asia. 

Arun Singh, Global Chief Economist at Dun & Bradstreet says: “In response to this uncertain environment, businesses should look to accelerate strategic shifts in their supply chains. 

“Trade frictions, tariff risks and regulatory volatility are reinforcing the case for friendshoring, nearshoring and multi-sourcing as essential risk-mitigation strategies. 

“At the same time, businesses are reassessing credit exposure and working capital cycles, with rising payment delays and tighter liquidity underscoring the need for vigilant financial management. 

“Agility—underpinned by real-time data and insights into capital structure, payment behavior and supplier dependencies — will be essential for navigating the volatility ahead.”

Though many businesses face increasingly pessimistic outlooks in the short-term, the move inward to a more domestic market could see a rise in supply chain stability and traceability. 

Business flexibility will be critical to maintaining a successful workflow during these levels of geopolitical uncertainty.