Deloitte: Reshoring and AI Power 2026 US Supply Chains

After a turbulent 2025, US manufacturing leaders are at a critical point.

The previous year saw the sector contract, with the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing PMI staying below 50. This challenging environment was marked by rising costs, declining employment and falling manufacturing construction spending. Trade policy uncertainty was also a primary concern for over three-quarters of manufacturers.

However, a more positive outlook is emerging. The 'One Big Beautiful Bill' introduces tax provisions to lower costs and stimulate investment. Revised US trade agreements with countries like the UK and Vietnam offer less uncertainty while expected interest rate cuts may help revive demand.

In its 2026 Manufacturing Industry Outlook, Deloitte has identified key trends set to shape the sector’s path, ranging from the potential of agentic AI to adaptive workforce planning.

Digital tools for supply chain complexity

Investment in smart manufacturing is accelerating as companies seek a competitive edge. The shifting landscape of trade and tariffs created considerable uncertainty and higher costs throughout 2025.

According to the National Association of Manufacturers, 78% of manufacturers cited trade uncertainty as a primary concern, expecting input costs to rise by 5.4%.

Tim Gaus, Principal at Deloitte Consulting, explains: "Supply chain complexity isn't abating; it's evolving.

"Leading manufacturers are deploying AI-driven trade analytics and autonomous agents to continuously assess risk, scenario plan and rebalance networks." This improves end-to-end visibility while optimising cost and service.

Advanced AI agents can monitor disruption sources like trade policies or weather with visibility beyond Tier 1 suppliers. These systems can alert staff to problems, quantify impacts, recommend alternative suppliers, and even initiate mitigation actions under human supervision.

Smart manufacturing and AI investment

The need for supply chain resilience is pushing investment in smart manufacturing. According to a 2025 Deloitte survey, 80% of manufacturers plan to put at least 20% of their improvement budgets into smart projects focusing on automation hardware, data analytics, sensors, and cloud platforms.

"Manufacturers are focusing on automation, advanced analytics, cloud, and agentic AI to compete and adapt faster, achieving measurable productivity quality and capacity gains," Tim adds. 

Agentic AI represents a major step beyond traditional automation with the potential to add substantial value across the manufacturing value chain. Potential uses include finding alternative suppliers during disruptions and simplifying equipment repair for customers.

Physical AI, which includes robots with greater autonomy, represents the next stage. A Manufacturing Leadership Council survey from early 2025 revealed that almost a quarter of manufacturers intend to deploy physical AI within 2 years, more than double current adoption rates.

Policy incentives and reshoring opportunities

US policy developments could promote more reshoring strengthening domestic supply chains. Policy changes have enhanced investment incentives with The One Big Beautiful Bill Act keeping the 21% corporate tax rate and making permanent other tax-saving measures, like full expensing for new equipment and R&D.

This is happening alongside strong sector-specific growth.

"The data centre boom and ongoing semiconductor investment are spurring multi-year agreements to produce key components and expand US production to meet growing demand," Tim adds.

Investment in semiconductor manufacturing is expected to continue its upward trend. As of July 2025, companies have announced more than US$500bn in private sector commitments to revitalise the US chipmaking ecosystem, which could potentially triple domestic capacity by 2032. This influx of investment directly impacts supply chain strategy by localising production.

Competition for skilled labour remains strong, particularly as manufacturers invest in advanced digital tools. An adaptive "build, buy or borrow" framework for workforce planning could help manufacturers stay agile.

This strategy involves 'building' talent for core business operations 'buying' external personnel with critical expertise and 'borrowing' temporary workers to meet fluctuating demand.

Tim believes that the manufacturers that seize new opportunities and invest in smart manufacturing will be "well positioned to navigate volatility, unlock new growth, and widen the competitiveness gap."

The path ahead requires both technological sophistication and strategic agility. Those who successfully balance investment in smart manufacturing with adaptive workforce planning will likely emerge stronger.