CIPS: Global Supply Chain Worries Hit a Record High

The Q2 2025 CIPS Pulse Survey, which relies on insights from procurement and supply professionals, reveals that concerns for short-term and long-term outlooks for supply chain disruption have risen significantly.

Concerns are at an all-time high since tracking began, as a result of ongoing instability in the Middle East and the new US tariff policies.

Many sectors, including fuel, food and shipping, are anticipating a myriad of supply risks and major price hikes, causing a ripple effect for suppliers and consumers alike.

Record-high concerns

CIPS gained responses from 200 senior supply chain and procurement professionals across every continent, with expertise across a range of industries including healthcare, banking, manufacturing and government. 

In the survey, professionals rank their concerns from 1-7, which allows CIPS to track shifts in opinion.

The Q1 survey was conducted in March, using responses from supply leaders with understandings of sourcing decisions and cost pressures.

Concerns have been exacerbated between the quarterly reports, as a result of the recent geopolitical shifts. 

Dr John Glen, CIPS Economist, comments: “This pulse check clearly indicates the impact of escalating tariffs globally and increased geopolitical tension in the Middle East on procurement managers’ perception of supply chain risk.

“The volatility and uncertainty which has permeated global supply chains is providing unprecedented, in recent times, challenges to procurement professionals.”

When discussing concern over the next three months, the average score was 4.57 out of 7, which is an increase from the Q1 average of 4.36. This is also the highest result on record.

This increases when professionals were asked about their 12-month concern, with an average score of 5.03 out of 7, as opposed to Q1 with a score of 4.91.

Ben Farrell, CEO of CIPS, explains: “Global procurement leaders are operating in uncharted waters. Between geopolitical shocks, tariff upheaval, and ongoing price volatility, we’re seeing levels of anxiety we’ve never recorded before. 

“It’s no longer a question of ‘if’ disruption happens, it's about preparing for when and where.”

Prices set to rise

Input prices are set to increase, with five spend categories forecasting increases of more than 10%. In Q1 only three categories crossed the 10% concern threshold. 

John adds: “The fact that significant price increases are now appearing in multiple channels within supply chains will put additional pressure on organisations to increase final prices to consumers. 

“This in turn may inhibit the ability of central banks to reduce interest rates in the short term and in doing so inhibit central bank’s ability to stimulate insipid levels of economic growth in Europe and the UK.”

With an increase of input prices, consumers will likely see an increase in cost for them.

Shipping inflation will create a ripple effect through every product and industry, meaning higher prices for everything from furniture to food.

Fuel input spikes are likely to increase heating and transportation costs.

With an increase in food prices, grocery inflation is at risk, meaning consumers will see significantly increased prices across the aisles.

Higher costs, and even availability issues, may be seen across medicines and chemicals, potentially resulting in a healthcare crisis. 

Ben worries: “We are entering a new era of supply chain risk, where political decisions thousands of miles away directly raise prices at the checkout. 

“From shipping lanes to silicon chips, no category is safe from disruption. Procurement professionals are the economy’s early warning system and this quarter; the alarms are blaring.”

Confidence concerns

The survey asked the respondents to identify what they believed to be the current causes of supply shortages, with 53% blaming geopolitical factors.

36% named US-China trade conflict as a main contributor.

Between the Q1 and Q2 responses, concern about inflation dropped from 59% to 41%, showing that procurement leaders are facing risks that go beyond price increases. 

Although procurement leaders are trying to mitigate these risks by diversifying the number of suppliers and insourcing, concerns are outweighing confidence. 

With ever-growing tariff prices and unchanging conflicts, supply chains around the world must adapt in order to respond to uncertainty.