Can CBP Keep Trade Flowing Through a US Shutdown?
The US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) has confirmed it will continue revenue collections throughout a federal shutdown, according to a Department of Homeland Security (DHS) contingency plan.
The agency, which processes close to US$100m in daily duties, tariffs and fees, plays a critical role in keeping trade lanes open and government funds supplied even when Congress fails to reach a budget deal.
Earlier this week, US President Donald Trump said: "The last thing we want to do is shut it down. But a lot of good can come from shutdowns. We can get rid of a lot of things that we didn't want, and they'd be Democrat things."
Alongside tariff duties, disaster payments by the Federal Emergency Management Agency and fee-funded financial operations from US Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) will also remain active.
That said, supply chains are still feeling the pressure. Ports, rail carriers and logistics firms are bracing for ripple effects, with some bottlenecks expected due to a lack of staffing and documentation delays.
The CBP has explained that cargo inspections, passenger processing and port-of-entry operations will go on, even during shutdown conditions.
A procedural advisory also confirms that "passenger processing and cargo inspection at ports of entry will continue during a lapse in appropriations".
As of mid-2024 CBP had about 66,000 employees, with roughly 61,000 retained to keep essential functions moving during a lapse.
Not all services can proceed without interruption, however. Documentation reviews, duty assessments and compliance checks slow as non-essential staff are furloughed. Imports that require extra scrutiny – including pharmaceuticals, perishables and other regulated goods – can face longer dwell times.
Ports are adapting to mitigate delays. Operators note that CBP’s law-enforcement role keeps terminals open, though back-office furloughs can slow documentation and compliance work.
Warehouse pressure and trade rerouting
Bonded warehouses – facilities where imported goods can be stored without paying duties until released – are coming under fresh pressure as a result of the shift.
With more than 1,700 bonded warehouses across the US, importers redirect shipments there to navigate Customs slowdowns. These facilities saw a surge in use after changes to trade rules and tariffs under US President Donald Trump's last term. A prolonged funding gap now risks exceeding their capacity.
Supply chain planners are shifting cargo flows to avoid chokepoints. Logistics firms and shippers reroute freight through less congested ports or prioritise pre-clearance of goods to avoid inspection backlogs and protect sensitive cargo.
Exporters could also take a hit. Those dealing in controlled goods, such as aerospace parts or defence technology, often wait for export licensing approvals from the US Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS).
During shutdowns, these approvals typically pause or slow, delaying outbound shipments and contracts.
Regulated imports are most exposed to process slowdowns.
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Food Safety and Inspection Service continues mandated meat, poultry and egg inspections, but some US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) activities narrow during a shutdown, which can delay certain FDA-regulated shipments.
Financial strain and sector vulnerability
Logistics disruptions always come with a financial cost.
During the 35-day 2018-19 shutdown, the Congressional Budget Office estimated a loss of US$8bn from US gross domestic product in the first quarter. The hardest hit sectors were those sensitive to logistics delays – retail, automotive and manufacturing among them.
In 2019, shipment dwell times at the Port of Los Angeles-Long Beach also rose by 15 to 20%.
For retailers and e-commerce firms, shutdowns risk delaying inventories ahead of holiday or seasonal peaks. Just-in-time manufacturing operations face stoppages if imported parts slow at ports. Even though energy and chemical shipments remain more stable, any pipeline or export project requiring federal approval may stall.
On the ground, trucking firms may feel the cascade effect. Delays at ports lead to longer wait times, a shortage of chassis and containers and higher last-mile costs. Distributed networks become harder to schedule, raising friction across the logistics chain.
Over time, prolonged shutdowns begin to chip away at confidence in US logistics reliability. Some global firms explore alternative sourcing and port options to insulate operations from future gridlock.
Supply chains will keep moving, but only with constant adjustments and close coordination. The longer a shutdown continues, the more the system strains.
