IATA forecasts brighter skies for the next 4 years

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) offered some positive news to the aviation industry yesterday, forecasting a period of growth up to 2016.

IATA’s industry traffic forecast showed a growth of three percent per annum in international freight volumes, which will total to 34.5 million tonnes until 2016. That is 4.8 million more tonnes of air cargo than the 29.6 million tonnes carried in 2011.

Airlines can also expect to welcome some 3.6 billion passengers in 2016. That’s about 800 million more than the 2.8 billion passengers carried by airlines in 2011.

According to IATA’s website, Aviation is at the centre of the future economy, with 3.5 percent of the global economy and 35 percent of all world trade by value relying on aviation, equating to $5.3 trillion of goods which travel by air.

International Freight Developments

International freight volumes are expected to grow at a five-year CAGR of 3.0%, which is the result of an upward growth trend over forecast period - starting at 1.4% growth in 2012 and reaching 3.7% in 2016.

The five fastest growing international freight markets over the 2011-2016 period will be Sri Lanka (8.7% CAGR), Vietnam (7.4%), Brazil (6.3%), India (6.0%) and Egypt (5.9%). Five of the 10 fastest growing countries are in the Middle East North Africa (MENA) region, reflecting MENA’s growing importance in international air freight.

By 2016, the largest international freight markets will be the United States (7.7 million tonnes), Germany (4.2 million tonnes), China (3.5 million tonnes), Hong Kong (3.2 million tonnes), Japan (2.9 million tonnes), the United Arab Emirates (2.5 million tonnes), the Republic of Korea (1.9 million tonnes), the United Kingdom (1.8 million tonnes), India (1.6 million tonnes) and the Netherlands (1.6 million tonnes).

Freight carriage within the Asia-Pacific region will account for around 30% of the expected total increase in freight tonnage over the period.